Project performance assessment

Terms of reference

Background

The Independent Office of Evaluation of IFAD (IOE) will conduct a Project Performance Assessment (PPA) of the Rural Diversification Programme (RDP) in Mauritius. The PPA is a project-level evaluation aiming at:

• providing an independent assessment of the results and impact of the programme under consideration;
• generating findings and recommendations for the design and implementation of on-going and future operations in the country.

PPAs are conducted on a sample of projects for which a Project Completion Report (PCR) has been validated by IOE and taking into consideration the following criteria:

• synergies with forthcoming or on-going IOE evaluations;
• major information gaps in the PCR;
• novel approaches;
• geographic balance.

In the case of RDP, an initial review of the Project Completion Report was undertaken in the period April-May 2013 and forms the basis for this PPA exercise.

The PPA applies the evaluation criteria outlined in the IFAD Evaluation Manual. In view of the time and resources available, the PPA is generally not expected to undertake quantitative surveys; rather, it adds analysis based on interviews at IFAD headquarters, interactions with stakeholders in the country including project beneficiaries, and direct observations in the field.

Country context. The Republic of Mauritius, located in the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar, includes the islands of Mauritius, Cargados-Carajos, Rodrigues and Agalega. Mauritius covers a surface area of 2,040 square kilometres, with an estimated population of 1.25 million, a population density of 628 people per square kilometre, and a rural population of 735,500 people (62 per cent of the total). With a population growth rate estimated at 5 per cent, official projections show that Mauritius will soon face the ageing population syndrome (population above age 60 will increase from 9 per cent in 2000 to 23 per cent in 2040)¹. Ethnically, the country is made up of a majority of Indian people and people of African, European and Chinese descent. Practiced languages are English, French and Mauritian Creole.

Mauritius has solid economic fundamentals, as the country is ranked high in terms of competitiveness, investment climate and governance. Foreign direct investments, amounted at US$273 million in 2011, equivalent to 2.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while exports were toUS$5,900 million, 53 per cent of GDP². The remarkable performance of the economy is attributed to sound economic governance, accelerated reforms to sustain long-term growth and effective State-business relations. These factors, together with timely and targeted responses, helped Mauritius to weather in part the negative effects of the global crisis. At the same time, while severe poverty is rare in Mauritius (below 2 per cent) compared to other parts of Africa, the country contains a minority of very poor households, most of which are located in rural areas. In the wake of the country's exposure to increased global competition – and a consequent decline in production of sugar and textiles for export – rural poverty is on the rise. Unemployment is increasing, and those who are already disadvantaged are sinking into deeper poverty.

Overall, an estimated 8.7 per cent of Mauritians live in poverty, with a higher incidence in urban centres (12.4 per cent) than rural areas (8 per cent)³. Notably, Mauritius also incorporates the island of Rodrigues, which is substantially poorer than the main island. About 40 per cent of the population of Rodrigues lives below the poverty level.

• Project description. The RDP was designed with the overall goal of stimulating diversified and sustainable economic development for low-income households. This was to be achieved by:
• diversifying and improving the income and resource base of poor, particularly low-income, households;
• developing institutional modalities and instruments to enable the poor to avail themselves of increased economic opportunities from agriculture, fishing and off-farm microenterprises;
• improving the technical and entrepreneurial capacity of the target group through training and the strengthening of grass-roots groups and organizations, in close cooperation with the private sector, NGOs and civil society.

The programme was to be demand-driven, responding to feasible and viable options of individual households/communities over a period of six years. Its objectives were to be achieved through a set of four distinct sub-programmes, directly geared to increasing production based on the investment opportunities available in irrigated agriculture development; microenterprise and microfinance; development of FAD fishing; and community development initiatives.

A total of 15,180 households in Mauritius and Rodrigues were expected to benefit from the programme. The majority of the poor consisted of small and marginal planters, artisanal fishermen, unemployed, landless rural labourers, unskilled (mostly female) labourers and female-headed households.

Methodology

Objectives of the PPA. The main objectives of the PPA are to:

• assess the results of the programme;
• generate findings and recommendations for the design and implementation of on-going and future operations in Mauritius.

Scope. The PPA will take account of the review of project documentation, issues emerging from interviews at IFAD headquarters, and a focused mission to the country for the purpose of generating a comprehensive, evidence-based evaluation. However, the PPA will not need to examine or re-examine the full spectrum of programme activities, achievements and drawbacks, but will focus on selected key issues. Furthermore, subject to the availability of time and budgetary resources, due attention will be paid to filling in the major evaluative information gaps of the PCR and other programme documents.

Evaluation criteria. In line with the evaluation criteria outlined in IOE's Evaluation Manual (2009), added evaluation criteria (2010)⁴and the IOE Guidelines for PCRV and PPAs, the key evaluation criteria applied in this PPA will include:

• Relevance, which is assessed both in terms of alignment of project objectives with country and IFAD policies for agriculture and rural development and the needs of the rural poor, as well as project design features geared to the achievement of project objectives;
• Effectiveness, which measures the extent to which the project's immediate objectives were achieved, or are expected to be achieved, taking into account their relative importance;
• Efficiency, which indicates how economically resources/inputs are converted into results;
• Rural poverty impact, which is defined as the changes that have occurred or are expected to occur in the lives of the rural poor (whether positive or negative, direct or indirect, intended or unintended) as a result of development interventions. Five impact domains are employed to generate a composite indication of rural poverty impact: household income and assets; human and social capital and empowerment; food security and agricultural productivity; natural resources, environment and climate change; and institutions and policies;
• Sustainability, indicating the likely continuation of net benefits from a development intervention beyond the phase of external funding support. It also includes an assessment of the likelihood that actual and anticipated results will be resilient to risks beyond the project's life;
• Pro-poor innovation and scaling up, assessing the extent to which IFAD development interventions have introduced innovative approaches to rural poverty reduction and the extent to which these interventions have been (or are likely to be) replicated and scaled up by government, private sector and other agencies;
• Gender equality and women's empowerment. This criterion is related to the relevance of design in terms of gender equality and women's empowerment, the level of resources committed, and changes promoted by the project; and
• Performance of partners, including the performance of IFAD and the Government, will be assessed on an individual basis, with a view to the partners' expected role and responsibility in the project life cycle.

Data collection. The PPA will be built on the initial findings of the PCR and other relevant project documentation. For further information, interviews will be conducted both at IFAD headquarters and in Mauritius. In the course of the in-country mission, additional primary and secondary data will be collected in order to reach an independent assessment of performance and results. Data collection methods will mostly include qualitative participatory techniques. The methods deployed will consist of individual and group interviews, and direct observations. The PPA will also make use – where applicable – of additional data available through the programme's Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) system. Triangulation will be applied to verify findings emerging from different information sources.

Stakeholders' participation. In compliance with the Evaluation Policy of 2011, the main programme stakeholders will be involved throughout the PPA. This will ensure that the key concerns of the stakeholders are taken into account, that the evaluators fully understand the context in which the programme was implemented, and that opportunities and constraints faced by the implementing institutions are identified. Regular interaction and communication will be established with the East and Southern Africa Division (ESA) of IFAD and with the Government of Mauritius. Formal and informal opportunities will be explored during the process for the purpose of discussing findings, lessons and recommendations.

Evaluation Process

In all, the PPA will involve five phases: desk work; in-country work; report drafting and peer review; receipt of comments from ESA and the Government of Mauritius; and the final phase of communication and dissemination.

Desk work phase. The related PCR for RDP and further desk review based on official project documentation and other evaluative material as appropriate will provide initial findings and identify key issues to be investigated by the PPA.

Country work phase. The PPA mission is scheduled for 13 to 26 July 2013 as agreed with the Government of Mauritius. Mission members will interact with the Government, local authorities, local partners, programme staff and clients (beneficiaries), and collect information from the programme's M&E system and other sources. At the end of the mission, a brief will be provided to the IFAD partner ministry, followed by a wrap-up meeting in Port Louis, to summarize the preliminary findings and discuss key strategic and operational issues.

Report drafting and peer review. At the conclusion of the field visit, a draft PPA report will be prepared and submitted to IOE internal peer review for quality assurance. Designated evaluation officers in IOE will peer review the draft PPA report providing comments both on the quality and contents of the document.

Comments by ESA and the Government. The PPA report will be shared with ESA and thereafter with the Government for comments. IOE will finalize the report following receipt of the Government's comments.

Communication and dissemination. The final report will be disseminated among key stakeholders and the evaluation report published by IOE, both online and in print.

Key Issues for Investigation

A review of the PCR has shown that it has not covered all the key aspects of the programme performance and results; in addition, its structure and content did not follow the IFAD Guidelines for PCR Preparation (2006). Therefore, all the core evaluation criteria, i.e. relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact as well as the performance criteria, i.e. sustainability, innovation and scaling up, gender equality and women's empowerment, will be further investigated and properly assessed by the PPA. Moreover, the performance of partners, i.e. Government and IFAD, will, also, be an issue to be addressed by the PPA.

Evaluation Team

Mr Mark Keating, Evaluation Officer, has been appointed as Lead Evaluator for this PPA and will be responsible for delivering the final report. He will be assisted by Mr Avraam Louca, Senior consultant as the expert who will lead the mission and prepare the draft report.

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1/ World Bank Development Data, World Bank (2013); and United Nations Statistics, United Nations (2012).

2/World Bank Development Data. World Bank (2013).

3/ Mauritius does not have an official poverty line. When evaluating poverty, a variety of standards are used, including by government statistics. One is to measure poverty as less than half the median household income. By this measure, about 8.7 per cent of households were below the poverty line in 2010. The World Bank has measures of US$1.25 per day in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) as extreme poverty and US$2.00 per day in PPP as a higher poverty line. Using the US$2.00 per day cut-off point, less than 2 per cent of the population is below the indicator level. Extracted from "Competition and Poverty Reduction", Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, OECD, 2013.

4/ Gender, climate change, and scaling up.